Angel Fire kicked off the year strong, with solid activity from January through March slightly outpacing prior years. However, we saw a noticeable slowdown starting in April and continuing through June, resulting in a 20% decline in units sold during the first half of 2025 compared to the prior year.
Values
The total number of homes sold has come down as we’ve moved out of the COVID-fueled market, but values have stayed relatively strong. Overall, the average sales price was up due to increased activity in the $1.5M+ price range. But when we look at the median sales price, it’s clear that 2023 was the market peak – the median price has softened each year since then. A breakdown of sales by price shows that 77% of homes sold were under $1M, with 34% under $500K. If you thought the sub-$500K single-family home market was gone in Angel Fire, these numbers show otherwise.
Absorption Rate
The absorption rate, which measures supply vs demand, has ticked up each year since 2023. This means more sellers competing for fewer buyers. This results in buyers rejecting overpriced homes. In fact, listings that needed a price reduction were on the market two and a half times longer and ultimately sold for 2.4% less compared to homes priced right from the start.
Buyer demand of the early covid boom ate up the oversupply of inventory we started 2020 with. In 2021, the units sold well outstripped the inventory on the market. As we moved through the covid years, that gap shrunk and 2023 was the turning point where active inventory began to exceed buyer demand. This is exactly what’s driving the absorption rate up: more homes on the market, fewer buyers pulling the trigger. Since 2023 we’ve been shifting from a strong seller’s market to a more balanced market, which is even buyer-favored in certain price ranges.
Inventory
And when you look at active inventory, you can see this trend clearly. The decline in units sold combined with increasing inventory shows that this shift isn’t about a lack of homes for sale – it’s about softer demand. For example, there’s still plenty of inventory under $500K -the strongest segment of the market- compared to prior years, but it’s not moving as quickly as it once did.
Where are we headed next?
Historically, real estate follows a fairly predictable cycle: prices rise for 7–10 years, then dip for 2–5 years before starting the next climb. Many signs suggest that Angel Fire’s market has passed its peak for this cycle – but what happens next isn’t set in stone.
While the local market is influenced by the broader economy, and even national experts don’t agree on what’s next. If we follow the historical cycle, the market would decline for a couple years and then start the 7-10 year incline. However, some national forecasts predict a 2-3% increase in values annually for the next couple of years. The most accurate prediction of the local market is supply and demand. With today’s absorption rate, it will take a sustained increase in demand to absorb the current inventory before we’d see upward pressure on prices. A stronger economy or lower interest rates would spark that activity. Which direction Angel Fire takes will depend heavily on how many buyers step up this summer, compared to how many homeowners decide it’s their moment to sell.
For now, buyers have more choices and more negotiating leverage than they’ve had in the last five years. Sellers, on the other hand, need to price strategically to succeed – but the good news is, they’re still selling near the highest values in the history of real estate.
What This Means for You
If you’re wondering whether this is the right time, the answer isn’t the same for everyone. Each client’s situation is unique – your goals, your timing, and your comfort with the bigger economic picture all play a role.
We’re here to help you read the signs, crunch the numbers, and decide what makes the most sense for you – whether that means making a move now or planning for the future.
Reach out anytime. Let’s talk about your goals and how this evolving market fits into your plans.